BCG Executive Perspectives: War in Ukraine

Two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the humanitarian, social, and economic impact remains immense. Russia’s economy has survived the shock of sanctions, primarily by shifting exports of oil and gas from the West to Asia. Although commodity prices have stabilized and supply chains have adapted to the new economic and geopolitical realities, business leaders should remain prepared for uncertainty. The momentum on the frontline could shift, resulting in more geopolitical repercussions.

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BCG’s Future of Trade (FoT) perspective predicts that three drivers will impact trade flows in 2030: Russia-West fall-out, slower US / EU trade with China, and ASEAN trade growth. Businesses must understand risks, prioritize moves and contingency plans in the short-term, and build capabilities for resilience and apply scenario planning in the long-term. In the short-term, businesses must understand trade flow risks across their value chain, prioritize no-regrets moves, and intensify contingency planning. In the long-term, businesses must build capabilities to manage volatility and apply scenario planning for resilience.

As we enter the second year of war, it is impossible not to reflect on the enormous loss and suffering it has wrought. The top priority for all continues to be the safety and security of people. The scale and duration of the war has had a profound economic impact, both within Ukraine and globally. The one-year mark provides an occasion to reflect on the growing extent of physical and economic damage to Ukraine and the scale of rebuilding required.