BCG’s India Economic Monitor shares insights on the state of Indian Economy from the most recent month, capturing 30+ key macroeconomic indicators and comparing them with trends observed in recent months. These indicators include industrial activity, trade, financial services, economic sentiments and sector-wise trends.

Brief Summary for Latest Report

November 2024

Key highlights include:

• In Oct’24, most high-frequency indicators showed moderate to high growth vs. the previous month. IIP improved in Sep’24, driven by growth in the manufacturing sector. Cement production increased marginally, while power consumption decreased vs. the previous month levels. The auto sector witnessed growth across all segments, supported by positive consumer sentiment during the festive season.
• Trade and investment indicators exhibited mixed trends. Merchandise trade deficit widened in Oct’24 as import growth outpaced export growth, driven largely by higher crude and vegetable oil, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and electronic goods import. The services trade surplus grew significantly, led by higher service exports. Forex reserves decelerated in Sep’24 after reaching a record high in Aug’24, due to a decline in foreign currency assets. FDI plummeted sharply in Aug’24 due to increased repatriation of equity capital.
• BFSI indicators showed strong performance in Oct’2024, with UPI transactions reaching a record high. The transaction value surged to INR 23.5 trillion, driven by a significant uptick in person-to-merchant payments during the festive season. Insurance premiums registered a decline due to a fall in life insurance premiums. NSE and BSE transactions declined significantly in Oct’24, driven by record FII outflows, overvaluation concerns, and global economic headwinds.
• On the macroeconomic front, CPI inflation rose to a 14-month high of 6.2% YoY in Oct’24, exceeding the RBI’s tolerance band of 6% for the first time since Aug’23, mainly due to a spike in prices of vegetables, fruits, and oil. WPI inflation increased to a 4- month high of 2.4% YoY, driven by rising prices of food items, manufacturing goods, machinery, and motor vehicles. Manufacturing PMI improved to 57.5 in Oct’24 as output accelerated, supported by higher new orders and international sales. Services PMI rose to 58.5, supported by strong consumer demand and job creation. GST collections reached ₹1.87 lakh crore in Oct’24, the second highest ever, driven by higher domestic revenue. Analysts predict GDP growth of 6.5%-7.2% YoY for FY25.

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