BCG’s India Economic Monitor shares insights on the state of Indian Economy from the most recent month, capturing 30+ key macroeconomic indicators and comparing them with trends observed in recent months. These indicators include industrial activity, trade, financial services, economic sentiments and sector-wise trends.

Brief Summary for Latest Report

October 2024

Key highlights include:

• In Sep'24, the economic landscape continued to exhibit mixed trends across most high-frequency indicators compared to the previous month. IIP declined, driven by contractions in the mining and electricity sectors. However, underlying metrics such as cement production, steel consumption, and daily average power consumption recorded a monthly uptick. The auto sector registered growth across all segments, fueled by a surge in seasonal demand.
• On the trade front, merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a five-month low in Sep'24, driven by a significant decline in merchandise imports, particularly gold. The surplus in the services trade remained steady at the previous month's levels, with a slight uptick in services imports. Forex reserves hit a record high in Sep'24, boosted by a notable surge in foreign currency assets and gold reserves. FDI also saw a sharp increase in Aug'24, primarily directed towards the manufacturing, financial services, communication, and energy sectors.
• Most BFSI indicators showed mixed trends in Aug-Sep'24. UPI transactions remained nearly consistent with Aug'24 levels in Sep'24, while NSE and BSE transactions edged down, although they still recorded a significant 53% YoY surge. Both life and non-life insurance premiums increased, with life insurance being driven by an increase in LIC's new business premiums.
• In terms of macroeconomic indicators, WPI inflation rose to 1.84% in Sep'24, driven by a surge in primary article prices. CPI inflation rose to a nine-month high of 5.49%, fueled by an 8.4% YoY spike in food prices. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 56.5 in Sep'24, while services PMI fell to a 10-month low of 57.7, pressured by fierce price increases and weaker growth in new international orders, with export growth hitting an 18-month low. GST collections saw a modest monthly decline, reflecting subdued economic activity. Consumer confidence improved in RBI's Sep'24 survey, with the CSI index rising to 94.7 and the FEI index to 121.4, indicating higher household confidence. Analyst forecasts indicate GDP growth of 6.7%-7.2% YoY for FY25.

Past Reports