Record Black Friday Predicted with 74% of Consumers Planning to Shop, as Cost-of-Living Crisis Drives Hunt for Bargains

• Average Spend Around November Sales Events Is Expected to Increase Between 3% and 22% Versus 2022, Depending on the Country Surveyed
• Consumers Are Turning to November Sales Less for High-End Items and More to Cover Their Basic Needs
• Consumers Expect a Minimum 30% Discount for a Good Black Friday Deal

BOSTON—With the rising cost of living continuing to pinch household budgets, 74% of consumers say they intend to take advantage of deals during November sales events this year—an increase of 7 percentage points versus 2022. Over the course of this Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Singles’ Day, US consumers plan to spend the most ($460), followed by Switzerland ($390), and Germany ($385). What’s more, average spend is expected to exceed 2022—in some countries, by as much as 22%. This record consumer spending, while partially driven by year-over-year inflation, also reflects a growing focus on deal hunting as consumers shift December holiday shopping to November to benefit from bargains.

These are among the findings of the 2023 Black Friday consumer sentiment survey by Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The survey, which was released today, examines the spending plans of more than 7,000 consumers across seven markets (Australia, Canada, Germany, Switzerland, Poland, UK, and US).

“Black Friday is a highly anticipated part of the annual shopping calendar. As consumers feel pressure on their personal finances this year, they are more deal-focused than ever,” says Jessica Distler, a BCG Managing Director and Partner and coauthor of the study. “The challenge for retailers will be to stand out among the noise.”

Consumers Turn to November Sales for Financial Relief

In response to inflation, consumers are changing their buying habits. More than 50% reported that they have cut back on non-essential purchases in the past three months, 49% check and compare prices more frequently, and 41% buy more based on deals and promotions.

In a continuation of these trends, consumers are turning to November sales events less for high-end items and more to cover their basic needs. While adult clothing and consumer electronics were the most favored product categories across countries, electronics experienced a strong decline compared with 2022. In addition, 68% of consumers said they intend to take advantage of November sales events to bag holiday gifts.

Across every country surveyed, consumers said that—more than a steep discount on select items, free/reduced shipping deals, or bundle deals—their preferred type of deal was a clear discount on all items. When asked about the minimum discount that would qualify for a “good deal,” consumers said they expect at least 30% off.

A Season of Sales Events

While Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain the most recognized sales events globally, with 95% and 86% awareness, respectively, Singles’ Day is no longer just an event for Chinese calendars. It is especially gaining popularity in European markets—it’s known by 56% of Polish consumers, 41% of German consumers, and 37% of Swiss consumers.

Many consumers also begin deal hunting well in advance of the blockbuster November sales events. Over 60% of consumers surveyed said they start actively researching deals early—some as early as October. Furthermore, when they begin deal hunting, more than 70% of consumers said they don’t know exactly what brand or product to purchase—leaving retailers room to shape buying decisions.

“November sales events are blurring into a whole season of bargain hunting. And this year, consumers are ready and willing to shop around to get the best value for their dollar,” says Julia Hohmann-Altmeier, an Associate Director in BCG’s Marketing and Sales practice and a coauthor of the study. “Retailers need relevant discounts and targeted ads based on product interests and key moments if they’re going to convert shoppers during what is sure to be a highly competitive shopping season.”

Download a copy of the survey here.

Local data is available upon request for Australia, Canada, Germany, Switzerland, Poland, UK, and US.

Media Contact:
Eric Gregoire
+1 617 850 3783
gregoire.eric@bcg.com