Powering Autos to 2020

The automotive-propulsion landscape is evolving rapidly, and the questions facing OEMs as they look toward 2020 are increasingly complex. Which technologies will prevail? How will consumers react to an expanding range of choices? How is the battle for market share—conventional versus electric vehicles—likely to shake out? What are the specific go-to-market challenges facing electric vehicles?

In this report, the latest in a series on automotive propulsion, The Boston Consulting Group addresses these and other questions stakeholders will face, providing an integrated perspective on the technologies that will populate the vehicle landscape through the rest of the decade. Specifically, the report focuses on internal-combustion-engine vehicles (ICEs), including those fueled by gasoline, diesel fuel, compressed natural gas, or biofuels, as well as microhybrids; hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), including mild and full hybrids that have both an internal-combustion engine and an electric motor but no external-charging capability; and electric vehicles (EVs), including pure battery, range-extended, and plug-in HEVs that have an electric motor and can be charged externally.

Drawing on interviews with industry experts, BCG’s consumer research, and total cost of ownership (TCO) economics, the report identifies different scenarios and their implications for OEMs, suppliers, and regulators.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank our BCG colleagues who contributed to this report, especially Fernando Apaez, Aoi Iwana, Rolf Kilian, Tejus Kothari, Stefan Reiter, Justin Rose, Laurent Rossi, and Alexander Wachtmeister.