Our most recent survey, conducted January 16–18, 2024, finds that investors appear to be more confident in a soft landing for the US economy, but they remain bearish for 2024.
  • A majority of investors (52%) expect a recession by year-end. In addition, investors anticipate an average three-year return of 6.5% for the S&P 500. While up from 6% in October 2023, that is the second-lowest level for the series.
  • An explanation for investors’ bearishness may lie in our finding that 70% (down slightly from 77% in October 2023) are concerned about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and its impact on the US economy.
  • Against this backdrop, investors continue to expect companies to deliver the best of both worlds—short-term performance and long-term growth and value creation. Investors’ emphasis on balance sheet health and capital allocation priorities reflects a relatively conservative, risk-averse approach.

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July 22, 2024

As we navigate an uncertain world, how do investors view the US economy and stock market? And what do they expect from business leaders?

The BCG Investor Perspectives Series brings the voice of the investor to business leaders and board members.

Our most recent survey, conducted June 14–16, 2024, finds that despite all-time-high S&P levels, investors remain concerned about the near-term outlook for the stock market. Only 41% are bullish for the rest of 2024.

Investors’ cautious views are being influenced by several macro factors. Fifty-three percent of investors, up from 40% in January 2024, noted that they are concerned about consumer price inflation and consumer sentiment. Although 65% of investors cited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy as a concern, that is down from 70% in January 2024 and 77% in October 2023. Looking ahead, 83% of investors highlighted global elections as a key factor that will sway markets. And almost half (47%) see the development and regulation of artificial intelligence as a key driver of future stock market returns.

Investors continue to expect companies to deliver the best of both worlds: long-term growth and value creation as well as short-term performance. Long-term organic growth is a top-three investment criterion for 59% of investors (up from 52% in January 2024), and business strategy and vision are priorities for 23% (up from 17%). At the same time, 79% of investors (up from 71% in January 2024) agree that companies should pursue significant near-term profit improvement programs.

More investors emphasized balance sheet health in this survey, reflecting a relatively risk-averse mindset. Roughly 73% of investors, up from 69% in January 2024, avoid companies with more than three times net debt to EBITDA. Moreover, 76% (a series high) expect companies to pay dividends that are at least at historical levels, while only 34% (tying a series low) advocate for aggressive share buybacks. Similarly, 80% of investors, up from 78% in January 2024, want companies to consider divestitures, whereas only 59%, down from 61% in January, want them to actively pursue M&A.

These and additional insights into investors’ perspectives are presented in the slideshow below.

BCG Investor Perspective Series | Past Editions

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