In 2024, caution has been the prevailing theme for many dealmakers worldwide. Although the market has recovered from its late-2023 lows, a strong resurgence in M&A activity has yet to materialize as companies navigate complex political and macroeconomic landscapes.
BCG’s M&A Sentiment Index suggests that there will be greater dealmaking activity for the remainder of the year. The index continues to climb slowly but steadily, particularly in North America and Europe. However, global deal volume will probably still be below the long-term average.
To better understand the regional dynamics at work, BCG asked experts in seven regions to describe the current state of their M&A markets and share insights on the near-term drivers of deal activity. Here are their perspectives:
Dealmaking in Africa has stabilized in 2024, ending the downward trend that followed the post-pandemic peak in 2021. Larger-than-usual deals are the primary drivers of this stabilization, even as deal volume remains significantly below historical levels.
During the first nine months of 2024, the total value of deals in Africa rose by 36% compared with the same period in 2023, outpacing the global increase of 10%. However, the number of deals on the continent held steady year over year, compared with the global reduction of 13%. Together, these figures point to a significant rise this year in the average deal size across Africa.
Within the broader trend toward stabilization, several sectors have witnessed significant transactions:
So far in 2024, South Africa has recorded the continent’s highest deal value (a total of $3.5 billion), primarily attributable to Canal+’s acquisition of Multichoice Group. Nigeria follows closely at $3.4 billion and Egypt ranks third at $913 million. In terms of transaction volume, South Africa leads with 118 deals, well ahead of Morocco (28), Nigeria (25), Egypt (22), and Kenya (18). South Africa was also the continent’s most active market in 2023, followed by Egypt.
Private capital has played a significant role in African dealmaking throughout 2024. Carlyle’s acquisition in the energy sector, noted above, could be a sign that big private equity firms are interested in reentering the African market. In addition, Hennessy Capital’s $530 million bid for Zimbabwean Namib Materials highlights how the African market is increasingly attracting international private capital.
Looking ahead, BCG’s M&A Sentiment Index indicates stable sentiment among dealmakers globally. In Africa, several key factors will shape the prospects for M&A:
We expect these factors to provide continued support for M&A activity in Africa and to attract increased interest from foreign investors. Even so, the dealmaking landscape is likely to remain volatile, driven by sporadic large deals and concentrated activity in the continent’s more advanced economies.
The author is grateful to Daniel Kim of BCG’s Transaction Center for his valuable insights and support in the preparation of this article.
German M&A activity has been sluggish in 2024, continuing a prolonged slowdown that began in the latter half of 2022. The early signs of a dealmaking recovery that have appeared globally and in the rest of Europe are just beginning to become noticeable in the continent’s largest economy.
During the first nine months of 2024, German deal value was 52% lower than during the same period in 2023. In contrast, deal value increased by 10% globally and by 14% in Europe overall. The number of deals in Germany declined by 19%, versus 13% globally and 15% in Europe overall. As a result, M&A activity in Germany continues to trail its long-term averages.
Despite the prevailing sluggishness, dealmaking in Germany’s industrial, financial, and energy sectors has been relatively robust in 2024, particularly for larger transactions:
Private equity firms have executed several high-profile deals in Germany. A notable transaction is KPS Capital Partners' $3.8 billion acquisition of Innomotics, a carve-out from Siemens. Elsewhere, CDPQ and TPG Capital joined forces to purchase Aareon from Aareal Bank and Advent International for $4.2 billion.
Looking ahead, BCG’s M&A Sentiment Index for Europe indicates stable sentiment among dealmakers in the region, as decreasing interest rates are offset by a more cautious economic outlook.
Dealmakers in the European Union are navigating a challenging regulatory environment, marked by recent interventions in the areas of antitrust and foreign investment. These challenges are evident in the increasing time required to close deals. A BCG study found that the average closing time for EU-based deals was 234 days in 2022—a 54% increase since 2018. For deals exceeding $10 billion in value, closing times rose by 22% during the period from 2018 through 2022, averaging 279 days—2.5 months longer than the average for all deals.
Amid persistent market volatility and macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, we see several catalysts for M&A activity in Germany:
The bottom line: despite short-term challenges, M&A activity in Germany is showing the first signs of cautious recovery, as companies utilize M&A to adapt to new business models and technological demands.
The author is grateful to Daniel Kim of BCG’s Transaction Center for his valuable insights and support in the preparation of this article.
M&A activity in India has been strong in 2024, bucking the trend in other Asia-Pacific markets. This robust performance marks a reversal of the sharp decline in deal-making that the country experienced from mid-2022 through 2023.
In the first nine months of 2024, Indian deal value surged by 66% compared with the same period in 2023, supported by large deals. In comparison, deal value rose by only 10% globally and declined by 5% in the Asia-Pacific region overall. Deal volume in India declined by 3%, but not as sharply as it did globally (13%) or in the Asia-Pacific region as a whole (13%).
Activity involving large deals in India was led by several sectors:
Technology continues to be a central M&A theme as India's strengthening relations with the US and Europe coincide with ongoing regulatory tensions between China and the West. Capitalizing on the “Make in India” initiative, Apple has announced plans to produce one-quarter of its iPhones in India by 2030. At the same time, AI continues to gain prominence, with the Indian government positioning the country as a global hub for AI and digital technologies.
Private equity players made several other prominent Indian deals. Examples include Advent merging Suven Pharma and Cohance Lifesciences in a $1.0 billion deal and Warburg buying Shriram Housing Finance through its affiliate Mango Crest Investment for $550 million.
Looking ahead, BCG’s M&A Sentiment Index for Asia-Pacific indicates somewhat subdued sentiment among dealmakers in the region—but with a cautious upward trend. Key drivers for this sluggishness include global geopolitical uncertainty and heightened risks of slowing growth.
On the regulatory front, a BCG study found that the average closing time for India-based acquirers has been increasing as government scrutiny intensifies. In 2022, deals required, on average, 220 days to close—an increase of approximately 30% since 2018. However, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) is set to release new merger regulations that incorporate global best practices and may reduce closing delays. The regulations will include guidelines on how to assess transaction values to determine whether CCI approval is required. They will also streamline the merger approval process by reducing the decision timeline from 210 to 150 days.
Over the longer term, dealmaking in India will remain robust as companies with strong balance sheets—flush with cash and significant capacity to take on debt—seek assets with attractive valuations. Companies will continue to focus on growth-oriented businesses that are financially efficient and have a controlled spending strategy. Private equity and venture capital investors will seek to deploy their record-high dry powder in cash-generating businesses to get a better return.
The author is grateful to Ashish Baid of BCG’s Transaction Center for his valuable insights and support in the preparation of this article.
In the Middle East, there is a clear divide in M&A between outbound deals and deals targeting companies within the region. Middle Eastern buyers continue to acquire companies outside the region, with outbound deal activity remaining at the high levels seen since 2021. We anticipate that robust outbound activity will persist.
For instance, ADNOC has ramped up its buy-side efforts, including the announced acquisition of German chemicals company Covestro for $12.5 billion—the first purchase of a German blue-chip company by a Middle Eastern buyer. The deal is a cornerstone of ADNOC’s global growth strategy and will provide the foundation for its international performance materials and specialty chemicals business.
In contrast, M&A activity involving Middle Eastern targets has been subdued in 2024, continuing the sharp decline that began after the pre-pandemic peak in 2019. In the first nine months of 2024, the deal value of transactions targeting companies in the region dropped by 45% compared with the same period in 2023. In contrast, global deal value rose by 10%. Deal volume in the Middle East increased by 7%, versus a global decline of 13%.
Despite the overall slump in transactions within the region, noteworthy dealmaking has occurred in several sectors:
So far in 2024, the UAE has recorded the highest deal value in the region (totaling $1.5 billion). Kuwait and Saudi Arabia follow with deal values of $1.1 billion and $987 million, respectively. The UAE also led in the number of deals, with a total of 98 transactions, followed by Saudi Arabia with 47 deals and Kuwait with 10 deals.
Looking ahead, BCG’s M&A Sentiment Index points toward stable sentiment among dealmakers globally. In the Middle East, several key factors will shape the prospects for M&A:
Other promising trends could help lift the region out of its dealmaking slump. These include the rapid development of capital markets and the sharpening focus of sovereign wealth funds on optimizing and monetizing their portfolios. Together, these trends should provide long-term support for dealmaking in the Middle East.
The author is grateful to Daniel Kim of BCG’s Transaction Center for his valuable insights and support in the preparation of this article.
Managing Director & Partner
Singapore
Dealmaking in Southeast Asia (SEA) has fallen to a 15-year low in 2024, exceeding the decline in the broader Asia Pacific (AP) market. The region’s projected economic growth, however, will serve as a positive counterweight for companies looking to diversify their portfolios via acquisitions.
Since peaking in 2021, M&A activity in SEA has declined sharply, largely owing to the absence of large deals. Notably, 2024 has so far seen only four deals exceeding $1 billion. In the first nine months of this year, SEA deal value dropped by 51% compared with the same period in 2023. In contrast, deal value rose by 10% globally and declined by 5% in the AP region overall. In terms of deal volume, SEA fell by 3%, somewhat less than the declines globally (13%) and in the AP region as a whole (13%).
Despite the slump, significant transactions have occurred in several sectors:
Singapore continues to lead M&A activity in the region, driven by its favorable investment climate and well-developed financial sector. Amid US-China tensions, Singapore and other SEA countries have emerged as top destinations for companies seeking to diversify their supply chains via a “China plus one” strategy. Although companies continue to maintain a presence in China, many are expanding their manufacturing operations within SEA, leading to greater investment in the region.
Dealmakers in SEA should prepare to navigate an evolving regulatory environment. For example, Singapore recently passed the Significant Investments Review Act, which aims to regulate investments in entities critical to national security. In addition, the Malaysian Competition Commission is amending its merger control policies to align with international standards.
A BCG study examined how regulatory developments are affecting the time required to close deals. We found that average closing times are decreasing in the AP region even as they are increasing in Europe and North America. In 2018, closing times in the AP region were longer than those in the US and Europe. By 2022, however, the average closing time in the region had decreased by 7%, falling to 185 days. During the same period, the US saw a 10% increase to 161 days, while Europe experienced a 27% rise to 191 days. Notably, this downward trend applies only to small and medium-size deals in the region. For AP transactions exceeding $10 billion in value, the average closing time increased significantly by 125% from 2019 to 2022.
Looking ahead, BCG’s M&A Sentiment Index for the AP region indicates slightly improving but subdued sentiment among dealmakers in the region. We see two key factors underlying this sluggishness:
Despite these challenges, M&A activity in SEA is expected to benefit from strong economic prospects, digital transformation, and further increases in inbound or intraregional cross-border transactions to diversify market exposure and sources of growth. The region's GDP is projected to grow by 4.7% in 2025, fueled by robust domestic demand. We expect the technology sector to experience high levels of deal activity as companies capitalize on further digital adoption. In addition, cross-border investments from China, Japan, and the US should continue to support dealmaking in the region.
The author is grateful to Ashish Baid of BCG’s Transaction Center for his valuable insights and support in the preparation of this article.
In terms of deal value, M&A activity in the UK has rebounded strongly this year, breaking out of the slowdown that began in the latter half of 2022. During the first nine months of 2024, UK deal value was at more than twice the level achieved during the same period in 2023—a staggering 131% increase year over year. In contrast, deal value increased by 10% globally and by 14% in Europe overall.
However, this leap in value resulted primarily from a small number of very large deals. Overall, the number of UK deals fell by 8%, versus declines of 13% globally and 15% in Europe overall. The UK figures for value and volume are approaching the country’s long-term averages.
The UK’s industrial, financial services, and retail and consumer sectors have been especially active in 2024, particularly for larger transactions:
Private equity firms have executed several high-profile deals in the UK. Examples include Permira’s $6.6 billion acquisition of Squarespace and Thoma Bravo’s purchase of Darktrace for $5.5 billion.
Looking ahead, BCG’s M&A Sentiment Index for Europe indicates stable sentiment among dealmakers in the region, as decreasing interest rates are offset by a more cautious economic outlook.
Dealmakers in the UK must contend with a changing regulatory environment. In early 2024, amendments to competition and consumer protection laws expanded the authority of the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority, heightening antitrust concerns. These changes are likely to increase the volatility and uncertainty of deal-closing timelines. A BCG study found that the average closing time for UK-based deals was 166 days in 2022, down from 200 days in 2021. For deals exceeding $10 billion in value, however, the average closing time from 2018 through 2022 was 253 days—16% higher than the historical average for such large deals from 2000 through 2022.
Nevertheless, we believe that the current positive trend in the UK M&A activity will continue, driven by several catalysts:
In 2024, UK dealmakers have shown resilience in the face of persistent market volatility and macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. All signs point to a continuation of the recovery.
The author is grateful to Daniel Kim of BCG’s Transaction Center for his valuable insights and support in the preparation of this article.
M&A activity in the US has been gaining momentum this year, continuing the upward trend that began in the second half of 2023. Still, the market has a long way to go to fully recover from the low levels of activity over the past 18 months.
During the first nine months of 2024, US deal value was 21% higher than during the same period in 2023. In contrast, deal value increased by 10% globally. The number of US deals decreased by 11%, versus a 13% decline globally. Even so, M&A activity in the US continues to trail the country’s long-term averages.
Dealmaking in the US energy sector has been robust, continuing the momentum from 2023. In addition, 2024 has seen noteworthy larger transactions in the technology, consumer, and industrial sectors:
Private equity activity in the US has made a significant comeback in 2024. Two take-private transactions highlight renewed activity at the intersection of private equity and technology: Accel Partners led a group of investors in acquiring payment provider Squarespace, while Clayton, Dubilier & Rice and other investors purchased revenue management software provider R1.
The current regulatory environment poses significant challenges, particularly following the issuance of new merger guidelines by the US Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission. These challenges are evident in the longer time needed to close deals. A BCG study found that the average closing time for US-based dealmakers in 2022 was 161 days, a 14% increase since 2018. For deals exceeding $10 billion in value, closing times have surged by 66% to an average of 323 days—double the overall average. Adding to the uncertainty, the outcome of the impending presidential election could have major implications for merger scrutiny.
Looking ahead, BCG’s M&A Sentiment Index for the Americas indicates slightly improving sentiment among dealmakers in the region. Key drivers for this improvement are decreasing interest rates and strong stock market performance.
We see several catalysts for US M&A activity in the years ahead:
Despite today’s challenging geopolitical and regulatory conditions, we believe that US M&A activity will soon stabilize as uncertainties surrounding the upcoming federal elections are resolved. Companies will once again turn to M&A to drive growth and adapt to technology-driven opportunities.
The author is grateful to Thomas Endter of BCG’s Transaction Center for his valuable insights and support in the preparation of this article.
BCG's annual mergers and acquisitions report covers M&A activity by year, the current state of the market, and perspectives on deal-making trends.
Global M&A activity remains below historical norms, even as activity has rebounded from last year’s trough.
Top-notch deal teams collaborate with business units to identify targets, execute transactions, and expertly navigate a minefield of risks.
A BCG study finds that timelines for deal closure have lengthened, especially for larger transactions.
