- BCG Forecasts That Global Payments Revenue Will Reach $2.4 Trillion by 2029 Despite Slowing Growth
- Agentic AI, Digital Currencies, and Real-Time Account-to-Account Payments Are Reshaping Industry Economics
- Stablecoins Will Create New Opportunities for Banks and Nonbanks
- BCG’s 23rd Annual Global Payments Report Highlights Five Structural Forces Redefining the Sector
BOSTON—Global payments revenue is projected to grow to $2.4 trillion by 2029, according to new research from Boston Consulting Group (BCG). While growth is expected to moderate to 4% annually over the next five years, the industry is undergoing a foundational reset as agentic AI, digital currencies, and fintech business models begin to shape the next wave of expansion.
These findings come from BCG’s 23rd annual Global Payments Report, The Future Is (Anything but) Stable, released today. The report draws on BCG’s proprietary Global Payments Model and includes forecasts and market dynamics across more than 60 economies accounting for more than 90% of global GDP. It identifies five structural forces reshaping the payments landscape: the rise of agentic AI, digital currencies such as stablecoins, fintech disruption, real-time account-to-account (A2A) systems, and the enduring importance of cost transformation.
“This is a turning point for the industry,” said Inderpreet Batra, BCG managing director and senior partner and global head of the firm’s payments and fintech segment. “Traditional growth levers are losing force, but new drivers including agentic systems, programmable money, and fintech innovation are rapidly coming into focus. The players that align to these shifts now will lead the next decade.”
New Forces Reshaping the Industry
Among the key findings of the 2025 report:
- Global payments revenue reached $1.9 trillion in 2024, but future growth will slow. After growing at 8.8% annually since 2019, revenue expansion is expected to ease to 4% annually. Transaction-based revenues remain strong, while deposit margin tailwinds slacken. Looking at overall growth (transaction-related and non-transaction-related revenue combined), Latin America will lead with 7.9% projected annual growth from 2024 to 2029, followed by the Middle East and Africa at 6.8%. Revenue growth in Europe over this period is expected to be 3.5%, in line with North America (3.4%) and Asia-Pacific (3.3%).
- Agentic AI is set to influence over $1 trillion in e-commerce spending. According to BCG research, 81% of US consumers expect to use agentic AI tools to shop, which will shape more than half of all online purchases in the near future.
- Stablecoins reached $26 trillion in volume, although real-world payments account for only 1% of that total. The market remains heavily concentrated in facilitating crypto trading.
- Payments fintechs generated $176 billion in revenue in 2024, and are growing at 23% annually. Payments-focused fintechs have attracted over $135 billion in equity funding over the past 25 years and now make up 45% of total fintech revenue. The top performers are growing three times as fast as incumbents.
- Real-time A2A payment volumes rose 40% globally in 2024. These systems now account for around a quarter of digital retail payments worldwide, even exceeding 50% of transactions in selected markets like India and Brazil. In the Middle East and Africa, where real-time systems are still emerging, adoption is projected to reach more than 50% by 2030.
“We’re entering an era where growth and complexity go hand in hand,” said Markus Ampenberger, BCG managing director and partner. “The next winners in payments won’t just be fast adopters of technology. They will be the firms that deeply integrate new capabilities into business and operating models, and customer value propositions.”
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