Multi-Gigaton Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal Is Needed to Achieve Net Zero, but Is Unlikely to Materialize Without Policy Drivers
- Between Six and Ten Gigatons per Annum of Residual CO2 Emissions Are Likely to Remain Unabated Globally in 2050
- It Is Unlikely That Voluntary Demand Alone Will Meet Global Needs and Supporting Policies Will Be Required
- The Integration of Durable Carbon Dioxide Removal into Existing and Proposed Policies Could Drive Up to 2.5 Gigatons in Demand by 2050
BOSTON—The role of high quality, durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which can remove and sequester emissions for 100 to 1,000+ years, is critical to limiting temperature rise as shown in all scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). An estimated six to ten gigatons (Gt) per annum of residual CO2 emissions is likely to remain unabated globally in 2050. CDR purchases have grown substantially, from 600 kilotons (kt) in 2022 to 4.5 megatons (Mt) purchased in 2023, and are expected to reach between 60 and 750 megatons per annum by 2040. However, this falls far short of the scale needed to reach net zero. These are among the findings of a new report being released today by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) titled Scaling CDR: Demand Drivers for Durable CDR.
CDR demand needs to scale up significantly—from 125 kt of durable CDR delivered in 2023 to the multi-gigaton scale needed by 2050. Without government action, this is unlikely to materialize.
“Unlike many climate technologies, the primary value of CDR is a public good,” said Karan Mistry, BCG partner and managing director, and coauthor of the report. “This brings its own challenges when it comes to such a sizeable scale-up, but also a significant opportunity for policies to drive demand. Many of these policies can simultaneously incentivize the maximum emissions reductions possible, as well as the scale-up of CDR demand.”
New regulatory and compliance demand drivers could lead to about 0.5 to 2.5 Gt CO2 per annum in durable CDR, covering up to 30% of residual emissions. Some of these are:
- Carbon pricing mechanisms, including emissions trading schemes and border carbon adjustments, could drive the largest share of potential demand, with 1.3 Gt.
- Other significant levers include regulatory requirements in aviation (up to 400 megatons), marine (up to 200 Mt), and power (up to 200 Mt).
- Coverage of residual emissions by durable CDR is expected to be highest in Europe and North America, about 65%, and lowest in Asia Pacific, around 20%.
- Addressing the remaining 70% of residuals, primarily located in Asia Pacific, would require reducing emissions further or increasing CDR demand further. Methods for increasing CDR demand in Asia Pacific and globally could include expanding the scope of existing and proposed demand drivers and creating new durable CDR demand drivers.
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