Our most recent survey, conducted January 16–18, 2024, finds that investors appear to be more confident in a soft landing for the US economy, but they remain bearish for 2024.
  • A majority of investors (52%) expect a recession by year-end. In addition, investors anticipate an average three-year return of 6.5% for the S&P 500. While up from 6% in October 2023, that is the second-lowest level for the series.
  • An explanation for investors’ bearishness may lie in our finding that 70% (down slightly from 77% in October 2023) are concerned about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and its impact on the US economy.
  • Against this backdrop, investors continue to expect companies to deliver the best of both worlds—short-term performance and long-term growth and value creation. Investors’ emphasis on balance sheet health and capital allocation priorities reflects a relatively conservative, risk-averse approach.

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October 18, 2024

As we navigate an uncertain world, how do investors view the US economy and stock market? And what do they expect from business leaders?

The BCG Investor Perspectives Series brings the voice of the investor to business leaders and board members.

Our most recent survey, conducted September 20–23, 2024, finds that despite the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and the S&P reaching all-time high levels, investors remain concerned about the near-term outlook for the stock market. Only 44% are bullish for the rest of 2024, just marginally up from 41% in June 2024.

Investors’ cautious views are being influenced by several factors. While 55% of investors are concerned about persistent inflation (down from 61% in June 2024), 34% expect a recession in 2025 (up from 27% in June 2024). Among the top three most important risks, investors also cited geopolitical risks (53%, up from 43% in June 2024) and asset valuations (33%, up from 23% in June 2024). In addition, 84% of investors see the election as likely to have a strong influence on the stock market, and 49% view the market as being too optimistic, particularly about AI development and regulation.

Despite their macro concerns, investors continue to expect companies to deliver the best of both worlds: long-term growth and value creation as well as short-term performance. About 91% of investors support companies prioritizing longer-term investments, while 73% want them to focus on near-term cost reduction. Many investors—78%—also want companies to prioritize divestitures, but 80% remain open to supporting compelling acquisitions, especially tuck-ins.

Given the recent rate cut, investors’ emphasis on balance sheet health and cautious capital allocation has started to normalize. However, 61% of investors still report reducing exposure to highly leveraged companies, and 76% expect companies to pay dividends that are in line with historical levels.

These and additional insights into investors’ perspectives are presented in the slideshow below.

BCG Investor Perspective Series | Past Editions

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