Our most recent survey, conducted January 16–18, 2024, finds that investors appear to be more confident in a soft landing for the US economy, but they remain bearish for 2024.
  • A majority of investors (52%) expect a recession by year-end. In addition, investors anticipate an average three-year return of 6.5% for the S&P 500. While up from 6% in October 2023, that is the second-lowest level for the series.
  • An explanation for investors’ bearishness may lie in our finding that 70% (down slightly from 77% in October 2023) are concerned about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and its impact on the US economy.
  • Against this backdrop, investors continue to expect companies to deliver the best of both worlds—short-term performance and long-term growth and value creation. Investors’ emphasis on balance sheet health and capital allocation priorities reflects a relatively conservative, risk-averse approach.

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December 12, 2024

As we navigate an uncertain world, how do investors view the US economy and stock market? And what do they expect from the companies they invest in?

The BCG Investor Perspectives Series brings the voice of the investor to business leaders and board members.

Our most recent survey was conducted November 8–10, 2024. In the wake of the US elections and the S&P 500 setting several all-time highs, we find investors’ outlook to be quite bullish. Compared with three months ago, 74% of investors are more bullish on the economy and 75% are more bullish on the stock market—both of which are series highs.

These views suggest that investors are optimistic despite slowly receding inflation and other risks. Geopolitical risks currently are the most important concern (highlighted by 49% of investors), followed by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy (45%) and its impact on consumer prices (31%). Still, 62% of investors view interest rate policy and 59% consider the US elections as the two factors most likely to affect 2025 equity returns.

Investors continue to demand the best of both worlds. A significant majority (88%) want companies to prioritize long-term investments, and 83% support innovation or go-to-market investments, even if they affect near-term margins. At the same time, 87% of investors expect companies to fully deliver on near-term EPS guidance and consensus forecasts.

In the current environment, investors encourage active portfolio management—78% want companies to consider divestitures, while 62% want companies to actively pursue acquisitions, and 82% (tying the series high) support making tuck-in acquisitions.

Despite the bullish postelection outlook and recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, investors emphasize a healthy balance sheet, with 60% noting that they have reduced their investments in companies with elevated leverage. And 77% of investors, a series high, expect companies to pay dividends at least in line with historical levels.

These and additional insights into investors’ perspectives are presented in the slideshow below.

BCG Investor Perspective Series | Past Editions

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