South Africa’s Net-Zero Transition: Towards a Just, Climate-Resilient, Prosperous Future for South Africa
Article
Our analysis of South Africa’s Just Transition to net-zero by 2050 offers several key findings:
1. South Africa must act now to unlock new green opportunities to deliver a just, prosperous, and climate-resilient SA and avoid the massive cost of inaction.
2. South Africa can be net-zero and capture new green opportunities by 2050 – but large-scale action with international support is needed. This includes an urgent expansion of the grid by at least 30 GW by 2030, rapid roll-out of renewables of ~6-7 GW per year, and capturing the green H2 opportunity to establish a ~9.5 Mt p.a. green H2 industry that creates as many as 2.5 mn job-years by 2050.
3. At least ~ZAR 6 trillion is required for mitigation infrastructure investments to transition to net-zero by 2050, with over ~ZAR 1 trillion required by 2030 without accounting for mid-term cost impacts. The public sector must unlock private sector investment through concessional funding. ~ZAR 100 – 350 billion concessional funding could unlock the necessary commercial funds for the ~ZAR 1 trillion investment required by 2030.
4. Although transitioning to net-zero can preserve the economy, secure long-term competitiveness and create new green industries, it must be managed and outcomes monitored across the 3 pillars of a Just Transition: Procedural Justice, Distributive Justice and Restorative Justice.
5. The sum of individual actions, even bold ones, will not be enough to meet this challenge. We need collaboration and a coordinated approach to successfully decarbonise and ensure a Just Transition by 2050.
To access our full report on Financing South Africa's Just Transition, please click here.
1. South Africa must act now to unlock new green opportunities to deliver a just, prosperous, and climate-resilient SA and avoid the massive cost of inaction.
2. South Africa can be net-zero and capture new green opportunities by 2050 – but large-scale action with international support is needed. This includes an urgent expansion of the grid by at least 30 GW by 2030, rapid roll-out of renewables of ~6-7 GW per year, and capturing the green H2 opportunity to establish a ~9.5 Mt p.a. green H2 industry that creates as many as 2.5 mn job-years by 2050.
3. At least ~ZAR 6 trillion is required for mitigation infrastructure investments to transition to net-zero by 2050, with over ~ZAR 1 trillion required by 2030 without accounting for mid-term cost impacts. The public sector must unlock private sector investment through concessional funding. ~ZAR 100 – 350 billion concessional funding could unlock the necessary commercial funds for the ~ZAR 1 trillion investment required by 2030.
4. Although transitioning to net-zero can preserve the economy, secure long-term competitiveness and create new green industries, it must be managed and outcomes monitored across the 3 pillars of a Just Transition: Procedural Justice, Distributive Justice and Restorative Justice.
5. The sum of individual actions, even bold ones, will not be enough to meet this challenge. We need collaboration and a coordinated approach to successfully decarbonise and ensure a Just Transition by 2050.
To access our full report on Financing South Africa's Just Transition, please click here.