Of the three quantum technologies with high-powered applications for business—quantum computing, quantum communications, and quantum sensing—the least well known is the latter. Ironically, quantum sensing is the technology with which we have the most practical experience: lasers, photovoltaic cells, and medical-imaging machines all use quantum sensors.

The reason for this lack of familiarity may lie in the difficulty of monitoring the technology’s development thanks to its highly diverse applications. But this diversity, combined with the relative ease of scaling (compared with quantum computing, at least), is fueling research in multiple fields and will soon start to unlock new use cases in health care, semiconductors, satellites, and military and defense manufacturing.

We recently observed that for large companies, enterprise-grade quantum computing is coming into view. We also expect new uses for quantum-sensing technology to emerge in the next decade, potentially with disruptive effect. Some 1,600 patents already have been granted, and startups raised $2 billion in 2022. The total attainable market for sensors is projected to reach $170 billion to $200 billion by 2030 and we expect the global quantum-sensing market to reach $3 billion to $5 billion by 2030 (or a 2% to 3% share of the wider sensor market), which will help propel the global market for all quantum technologies to $20 billion to $40 billion. (See Exhibit 1.)

Sensing What You Cannot See

The first wave of innovation enabled the commercialization of important technologies such as transistors and modern communications, as well as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines, digital cameras, and other imaging devices. The second wave will deliver two principal benefits over existing capabilities.

First, shrinking size enables transportable devices, which will create new measurement use cases. Until recently, some metrics could only be assessed in laboratory settings using bulky equipment. Size reduction paves the way to embedding quantum sensors in all manner of things, including planes, cars, and mobile phones. The ability to measure gravity is important in climate research, for example, and quantum gravimeters will benefit from taking in more data points than traditional devices.

The extreme sensitivity of quantum sensors, difficulties with integration, and limited scalability are barriers to standardization, which is a prerequisite to market penetration and growth. Indeed, sensitivity is both the greatest strength and the greatest weakness of these devices, since results can be corrupted by unfiltered noise when sensors are used outside the laboratory. Regulators, as well as customers, expect predictable accuracy and safety.

Integrating quantum sensing with other processes can be difficult because additional miniaturization and customization may be needed. Scaling up sensor production is currently hampered by the mostly niche applications now in use and by complex manufacturing processes that require numerous specialized experts to produce relatively few units. Finally, a general lack of awareness and knowledge hinders understanding of the benefits of quantum sensing, which affects both financing and adoption.

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Where the Action Is and Will Be

Each stage of the quantum-sensing value chain—components, sensing, applications, and services—is maturing at its own rate, making prediction difficult. (See “The Quantum-Sensing Value Chain.”) The strategic nature of the defense industry’s needs and activities—and its lower price sensitivity compared with other industries—has made defense the principal driver of the quantum-sensor market. So far, most quantum-sensing use cases have been prototyped and fielded for defense purposes.

The Quantum-Sensing Value Chain

The technological, commercial, and financial challenges at each stage of the value chain vary. So do the leading players. Each stage is focused on different applications and is maturing at its own rate.

 

 

Achieving the benefits of scale requires breaking into the commercial market. The speed with which applications come to market may depend not only on addressing customer priorities but on proving through military use that the technology is efficient. As with other technologies, such as microwaves, GPS, and virtual reality, civil applications will benefit from the technology’s maturity, from knowledge transfer based on the experience of the defense industry, and from economies of scale—all of which will contribute to more affordable prices.

Three other sectors in addition to defense stand to benefit, each with its own priorities. (See Exhibit 4.) Medical and pharma users have demanding requirements in multiple areas, such as sensitivity and size, because of mission-critical functions, safety criteria, and regulation. Electronics manufacturers value great accuracy and reliability and the ability to perform at scale (think of the millions of chips manufactured every year). Users in geology and energy have low price sensitivity and may be the least demanding in terms of performance; safety requirements are their top concern.

Prototypes for many applications in these industries are emerging. Defense and medical applications appear to be the closest to market maturity, but there are strong advantages for quantum sensors in electronics and geology and energy as well. (See Exhibit 5.)

• Magnetic anomaly detection monitors the presence of metallic objects such as submarines and mines. Quantum sensors enable deployment of the technology on small, unmanned aerial or underwater platforms. The capability could be deployed in other spheres as well, such as in autonomous cars to enhance the detection of objects. This use case is in the proof-of-concept stage in defense and in geology and energy.
• Portable MRI machines can expand the use of this imaging technology by significantly reducing the size of the scanners, allowing them to be used in isolated or underserved areas. The use case is in the prototype stage; further progress is needed to reduce both size and price.
• The use of quantum sensing in chip quality control, which has been prototyped by the electronics industry, enables faster scanning and higher resolution of defects. The last major barrier is the ability to standardize and industrialize the manufacturing process. Once this is overcome, the 20% scrapping rate at most of today’s semiconductor manufacturers will be lowered significantly, reducing waste and alleviating supply chain pressures.
• Underground geophysical monitoring senses seismic and volcano activity. Quantum gravity sensors provide state-of-the-art performance and have been fielded by energy companies. Further civil engineering applications, such as in infrastructure monitoring of roads, dikes, or industrial plants, will develop once the devices shrink in size.
• Inertial navigation using quantum sensors provides accurate positioning in areas where global navigation satellite systems such as GPS are either blocked or not precise enough (which can impair vertical positioning, for example). GPS signals are easy and cheap to jam. Defense organizations such as the Air Force Research Laboratory are deploying inertial navigation in missile guidance systems so that they do not rely solely on GPS. The technology is also useful in civilian settings such as road tunnels. Sensors are at the proof-of-concept stage at laboratory scale. Mass deployment will require miniaturization and cost reduction. Inertial navigation could leverage quantum sensing in industries such as automotive and aerospace and defense and may eventually, if miniaturization and unit costs allow, become an integral component of future smartphones.
• Self-driving cars require enhanced perception capabilities in order to accurately detect and track objects, pedestrians, and obstacles in real time and at high speed. This application is still in the early stages of development. Market readiness requires progress in quantum hardware (to better detect light sources), robust and reliable error correction techniques, lower cost, and smooth integration with autonomous vehicles and with existing infrastructure, such as roadways, streets, and intersections.