Power Moves: How CEOs Can Achieve Both AI and Climate Goals
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By Marcos Aguiar, Oliver Schilke, Russell Dubner, Amanda Barros, and Jeff Kiderman
The value of trust in business cannot be overstated. Companies with high levels of trust tend to demonstrate materially higher levels of total shareholder return—as BCG’s Trust Index, which measures ongoing stakeholder confidence in businesses, has found.
Yet it is harder than ever for companies to sustain trust. In recent years, many businesses have seen their stakeholders—customers, employees, investors, supply chain members, regulators, and neighbors—lose confidence in them. Our analysis reveals that almost 30% of large companies have experienced a major crisis or scandal in which peoples’ trust in them abruptly dropped. In nearly all these cases, recovery has been slow and difficult.
A breach of trust can be corrosive to a company’s revenues, its culture, and its future success. Many businesses never regain their former standing unless corrective and sustained actions are taken.
How, then, can business leaders avoid the deterioration of trust in their companies? And if trust does decline, is there a systematic path for actively regaining or repairing it?
In our previous report, we introduced the Trust Index, which applied natural language processing and AI to analyze and quantify stakeholder perceptions of a company’s reputation. Our new study looks at how 177 of the world’s largest publicly traded companies dealt with the ebbs and flows of trust in their businesses over a three-year period from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2022.
During that time, about half the companies experienced extreme shifts in trustworthiness: dramatic losses or gains in the way stakeholders judged their competence, fairness, resilience, and transparency. We gathered this data from mentions and impressions (M&I) of the companies in news reports and social media. The resulting analysis revealed the patterns of organizational strategy and behavior that emerge as companies deal with changing levels of trust in their businesses. (See “Methodology.”)
In May 2022, the BCG Henderson Institute published the global report “What AI Reveals about Trust in the World’s Largest Companies.” The Trust Index, on which that report was based, represented the first attempt to quantify trustworthiness in a large sample. The report assessed overall trustworthiness (the ability of a business to deliver on its promises to multiple stakeholders over time) based on four dimensions:
A trustworthy business is one that delivers on its promises to multiple stakeholders. For example, a company might be deemed trustworthy if it can fulfill its commitment to shareholders to meet its earnings guidance; if it can deliver products that meet or surpass its value proposition; or if it can honor a pledge to reduce its carbon footprint. Trustworthiness can be further broken down into four dimensions: competence, fairness, transparency, and resilience. The more consistently a company displays these four attributes, the more trust it enjoys from its stakeholders.
Seven key insights emerged from our study:
In this article, we use illustrative case studies and quantitative insights from the most recent trust study to show how companies can develop the capacity and capability to manage trust. With the right approach, companies can recover from just about any crisis of trust. They can also prevent future crises from occurring. This happens through a gradual, multipronged process that builds and showcases the company’s resilience and competence.
Trust changes in nonlinear ways. The trust scores of a company might shift less than a tenth of a percent from one quarter to the next—and might stay in that same range for years. But then comes a major trust-destroying event, which can diminish trust levels by more than 25% in a single month. (See the sidebar “The Range of Trust Crises.”)
Of the six drivers of trust loss described in this article, some are easier to recover from than others. Company-level scandals, the most common type of trust-destroying event, have a relatively low recovery rate of only 12%. They are linked with average trust losses of 0.48—a sizeable decline. Cases of fraud, bribery, shirking of social responsibility, violation of policies, and involvement in legal cases may require sustained efforts to resolve.
But even more difficult to overcome are trust-destroying events related to lack of efficacy. A company might have accidentally leaked private data, released unsafe or low-quality products, or failed to meet other baseline expectations. No companies in this group recovered their old trust levels within the study’s three-year time period. Instead, they became known for their ineffectiveness. Events related to efficacy led to the largest magnitude of loss (0.54) and tended to affect companies that would otherwise have high trust levels.
The smallest trust losses (0.29), relatively speaking, came from top-management scandals. They also had the overall highest recovery rate. Half of all affected companies recovered within those three years. Typically, the reputational blow falls on the specific person(s) involved rather than the company. The company has more options for managing the situation—for instance, by distancing itself from the cause of the trust breach.
Company accidents have the second highest recovery rate, with 43% of companies achieving recovery within the observation period. Industrial goods and energy companies, more prone to high-risk situations, accounted for 86% of these occurrences. The high recovery rates may reflect the visible response that often occurs: improving safety measures, cleaning up spills and leaks, restoring ecosystems, paying reparations, and instituting additional safeguards to prevent future occurrences, to name a few examples.
Externally driven trust crises are relatively rare, and the costs can vary. Trust loss from the external political environment has a modest recovery rate: 33% of the affected companies regain their former levels. Loss of trust from public activism is particularly difficult to rebound from. In the three-year period under study, there were no full recoveries.
In sum, our findings suggest that the characterization of a trust breach affects recovery. When the cause is deemed to be outside the company or isolated to a specific individual within it, recovery is swifter than when the company itself is to blame and the cause appears to be more deeply rooted. If the cause is truly external, then the company’s leadership can play a key part in the attribution process, identifying the relevant external causes for the crisis and communicating appropriate solutions.
These trust-destroying events can hit companies in just about every region and industrial sector. Having an established history as a high-trust company doesn’t seem to help much, either—in fact, the median trust score of companies during the quarter before they experience a big loss (.41) is slightly higher than the overall average trust score of our data set (.39).
A global insurance company (which we’ll call ClaimCo) had built a reputation for almost 100 years as a company of high ethical standards. Its trust score stood at .72, much higher than the general average of .39. Then the news broke in 2020 that some senior leaders had been implicated in a major public scandal. This discovery had a significant effect on the company’s trust score, which fell by more than half, to .36, in just one quarter. A number of major customers switched to other insurers. The company’s prior history did not lead online commentators to treat it with deference; if anything, the criticism was all the more scathing because of the inconsistency between the breach of trust and the company’s prior reputation.
Like most of the trust breaches we studied, ClaimCo’s losses were self-inflicted. Among the 66 trust-destroying events we observed over the three-year period of the study, 80% were caused internally: in other words, by a company’s own actions.
Exhibit 1 shows the six most common drivers of trust loss and their relative prevalence. Only two of the drivers, pertaining to only 21% of cases overall, are caused by factors outside the company’s control:
The other four drivers have roots within the company, through its decisions, practices, collective judgment, or the actions of rogue individuals:
The overwhelming majority of trust-loss cases are internal and self-inflicted. No business can avoid all risks of trust-destroying events, but every company can play a more proactive role in preventing and handling them.
The perceptions of companies tend to be favorable, especially when things are going well and the company is generally trusted. About 60% of the 177 companies in the study increased their trust levels during the 3-year period we studied. In general, these increases were not very steep; the average company’s trust level grew only .07%.
However, that average figure represents a wide range of trust profiles. In Exhibit 2, the lines from the left (the fourth quarter of 2019) to the right (the third quarter of 2022) show pathways of trust-level changes. The thicker the line, the more companies took this path.
As you can see, most companies stayed approximately level (40.7%) or moved just one tier (37%). A small number lost trust so dramatically that they moved from the very top tier to the very bottom. These are the companies that experienced trust-destroying events.
When a company goes through a trust-destroying event, its stakeholders shift their perspective. Previously, they may have paid close attention to a company’s profitability or consistent delivery on its value propositions. Now, they shift to monitoring a company’s resilience—how the company is handling the challenges that it faces. There may be a backlash from customers, new regulations, or even criminal charges to handle. There will certainly be a need for a public communications campaign, along with other priorities and interventions related to stakeholder trust: employee wellness programs or environmental, social, and governance initiatives. Compliance with rules and regulations becomes a more prevailing point of interest.
Such a shift happened to a prominent global tech company (TechCo) known for its media platforms where people connect and communicate. It had built up a massive customer base for its products in one major country—a country with strict rules about tech ownership and data control. These rules were known to be selectively enforced, and one year, TechCo was targeted. Though its own practices and policies hadn’t changed, it was now subject to new regulations and antitrust restrictions, forcing it to back away from some of its previously announced mergers and offerings.
Some industry observers predicted that TechCo would be forced to share its local ownership or give up its intellectual property. As the news and commentary continued, and some company leaders were publicly criticized, there was a sharp decline globally in TechCo’s trust levels. It continued to survive and retain its users, but it was no longer seen, in news or social media mentions, as being in control of its destiny.
It’s noteworthy that no company achieved the same feat in the opposite direction. No company boosted its trust levels from the lowest to the highest level. This might simply reflect the lack of attention stakeholders pay to companies in the absence of a crisis, or it might represent an opportunity for some companies to try to differentiate themselves as embracing trustworthy practices.
Now consider the 17 companies that moved up at least two trust levels during the three years of our study. Most of them also improved their scores at least ten times their peer-group average. (One group, on the path from tier 3 to tier 1, didn’t quite reach that latter criterion.) These top gainers represent nearly 10% of the full data set. What can be learned from their success?
Interestingly, they don’t readily match to any particular industry, region, or market-cap pattern. There is no typical trust-gaining company profile based on externally visible characteristics. They stand out because of the actions and approaches they take to ascend from their low-trust positions. They look at their trust issues as problems to solve directly. They address lawsuits, data breaches, boycotts, and criticisms with immediate, direct action.
However, simply resolving problems isn’t enough to substantially build trust; top trust gainers also draw attention to their competence, and specifically their ability to deliver on their core business propositions and meet stakeholder demands and expectations. These competence-demonstrating actions might include delivering robust business results, producing highly acclaimed products, launching new partnerships, becoming a magnet for talent, or delivering superior shareholder value.
In short, these companies focus on doing what they already do well—and on doing it even better and then drawing attention to it. Our study, and the Trust Index research that preceded it, underscore how crucial competence-demonstrating actions are to building trust. We saw this in the discussions that we analyzed: positive comments tended to focus on competence, while negative comments focused on fairness, resilience, and transparency. Among the top gainers, 82% saw a significant uptick (more than 20 percentage points) in the relative share of positive discussion about their competence, compared with only 6% of the nongainers.
Consider one top gainer, a retailer (SundryCo) mired in public outcry after a price-fixing scheme and product recall. SundryCo had taken steps to address the price-fixing issue, including cooperating with authorities and bolstering its internal compliance processes. But the critical factor for regaining its former high-trust standing was a series of competence-proving actions. From 2020 to 2022, SundryCo made the news by launching a new health and wellness app, administering the COVID-19 vaccine, and achieving strong financial results. It also improved its core business operations and its ability to meet customer demands. These actions helped to allay concerns instigated by the product recall and demonstrated the company’s commitment to delivering high-caliber products and services.
Another top gainer, a transportation equipment manufacturer (TrainCo), was confronting a flurry of legal issues involving certification as a supplier. These issues were publicly associated with its failure to win an important contract and the breakdown of a planned merger. In response, TrainCo obtained relevant certifications rapidly and used them in court. It also used them in a PR campaign designed to show that it was a viable and trustworthy competitor. Then it revamped its internal compliance practices to demonstrate a more ethical corporate culture. These resilience-oriented efforts were vital to kickstarting the trust recovery process.
However, as with SundryCo, competence made the ultimate difference. TrainCo’s trust levels grew only after it signed a new contract with a major city and delivered the first set of products for a project abroad.
Over time, attention paid to competence is key to driving positive mentions and impressions in the press and social media. (See Exhibit 3.) For the top-gaining companies, M&I related to competence increased and the prevalence of resilience decreased during the three years covered by the study. This went hand in hand with a rise in overall positivity toward those companies, with mentions covering all four attributes: competence, fairness, resilience, and transparency.
Shifting attention from resilience to competence appears to be a universal factor in rebuilding trust. On a day-to-day level, it means less emphasis to stakeholders on the crisis and response and less focus on solving the problems and corresponding public relations. Instead, the top trust gainers double down on visibly delivering their core products and services.
Substantial gains in trust require some specific measures, often with a shift in behavior on the part of the CEO and senior leaders. They center on the following attributes:
The other two trustworthiness attributes, fairness and transparency, might seem equally important at first glance, especially when facing trust-destroying events involving bias, harassment, or unfair treatment of groups of people. However, in the empirical study, M&I of fairness and transparency did not emerge as key forces behind elevated trust levels. Rather, these attributes appear to be important for sustaining trust at a baseline level but less so for recovery. It’s primarily the levers of resilience and competence that enable companies to transform their positions from low to high trust.
Like the loss of trust, recovery isn’t linear. Some companies require more time or suffer intermittent losses on the way to recovery. In the study’s sample, one-third of the companies that experienced at least one trust-destroying event went through a second big loss after their initial decline. A few companies endured a third. This naturally made it more unlikely for them to recover quickly, or recover at all, within the period of the study. Only 24% were able to recover from a trust breach, representing about 7% of the full data set. (See Exhibit 4.)
One industrial raw materials company (MiningCo) came under fire in the national press for violating a policy to protect sacred land for Indigenous people. Its trust score declined substantially. The company began its bumpy road to recovery by fixing the problem and demonstrating competence. But two quarters later, a report was published on widespread sexual harassment of women in the mining industry. This caused a second big loss of trust—for both the company and its competitors.
Nonetheless, MiningCo began to rebuild trust through its competence, including an aggressive transition to green energy. This demonstrated that the company could outperform other mining companies in sustainable practices. Its score rose from -0.27 at the lowest point to 0.50 by the end of the observation period. Even so, it still had a 0.31 trust gap to close between its current lower level and its past.
These case studies highlight the often-turbulent journey to recovery. About 36% of the companies in the total data set went through dramatic ups and/or downs, experiencing either trust-destroying events (28% of trust breaches) or trust-creating events (10% of top-gainers). There was a 2% overlap: top gainers that recovered from a trust breach within the three-year period.
An in-depth analysis of this group—we call them the “turbulent path” companies—revealed three distinct archetypes of recovery, each with its own pattern of rising and falling trust. (See Exhibit 5.)
One path was marked by complacency. These companies seemed to take their recovery for granted, as if their restored trust would last indefinitely. But their trust levels fell again, often because of another incident that demonstrated either scandal or lack of competence.
ClaimCo was a case in point. As noted earlier, a management scandal drove its original high trust levels (0.72) down to 0.39. ClaimCo’s leaders put a great deal of effort into rebuilding the company’s trust level back up to where it had been before, and then stopped paying as much direct attention. However, as often happens, the aftereffects of the scandal continued to draw news coverage. ClaimCo’s trust level fell again back to 0.50.
Companies on a second path never fully recovered. These companies suffered a major trust breach and then reinforced that loss of trust with further missteps. They may eventually regain some trust, but not to the same level they had before. MiningCo and TechCo were among the “turbulent path” companies that followed this pattern.
MiningCo, TechCo, and ClaimCo have not yet been able to recover previous levels of trust; the same is true of 37 out of the 49 companies that suffered a major trust breach in the period.
The third path was traveled by 26 companies that suffered a major trust breach, rebuilt their trust back to preloss levels, and then sustained that recovery. These companies acted diligently and swiftly after the breach of trust. They focused on competence and resilience right from the start, repairing the holes in their reputation. Their scores rose substantially, albeit with occasional lapses along the way. TrainCo, rising from -0.43 to 0.68, and SundryCo, rising from -0.01 to 0.86, were two companies in this group. They both had very high CAGRs for trust throughout the three-year period.
What can we learn from companies that recovered successfully? And how can we develop and implement a systematic trust strategy before a crisis occurs? While the exact course to follow depends on trust drivers and other circumstances, there are some common actions every company can take:
When a trust-destroying event occurs, follow this sequence. First, visibly address the root-cause issue or commit to a timeline to addressing it. If the issue is severe, it may require frequent updates. Next, pivot to activities that demonstrate competence, to show that you are not paralyzed and are moving forward. Third, look for long-term measures that will, over time, demonstrate integrity (resilience) and competence.
Above all, establish a culture of integrity and make it part of your ongoing agenda. Don’t think of trust exclusively as a problem that needs to be solved, but as a positive path for growth and competitive advantage. When stakeholders have confidence in your company, they will work with you. It is helpful to know that trust, once lost, can be recovered. It is even more helpful—and worth a significant premium—to become one of the most confidence-inspiring companies in your field. You can then build a lasting trust advantage.
The authors would like to thank Primrose Ali, Wendi Backler, Anna Jiang, Santino Lacanna, Yago Soriano, Mahpari Sotoudeh, and Matt Williams for their help in the preparation of this article.
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