Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, BCG Henderson Institute; Global Vice Chair, Global Advantage Practice
Munich
By Nikolaus Lang, Markus Hagenmaier, Arturs Smilkstins, Sebastian Sackmann, Vladislav Boutenko, Richard Sargeant, and Johannes Wahl
Cities around the world are at a decision point as their mobility ecosystems face unprecedented challenges. (See Exhibit 1.) Among the challenges:
These severe problems will be exacerbated by two trends:
While numerous studies have explored theoretical visions and potential projects to address these daunting challenges, many city and transport authorities are still struggling to improve the situation holistically. Instead, they focus on isolated solutions that often lack long-term and strategic planning. For example, most cities in the US have traditionally attempted to meet increases in demand by expanding the road network, leading to short-term congestion relief but long-term worsening of the situation. (In fact, the annual delay per auto commuter increased by some 270% over the last 30 years in US urban
Building on numerous urban mobility projects from the past decade, we offer practical, step-by-step guidance (“the recipe”) on how cities can shift hundreds of millions of trips from motorized private transport to public and active mobility.
Reaching the right balance of supply and demand for a sustainable and comfortable transport system poses significant challenges and requires tailored strategies for each city. However, six elements (which correspond to our upcoming six ingredients) play a decisive role in enabling fast and enduring success (see Exhibit 2):
Each city is different. With that in mind, planners must develop a deep, comprehensive, and customized understanding of urban mobility within a particular city’s borders—first diagnosing issues that impede mobility currently and then envisioning a desired and viable future state in which the challenges are overcome.
Status Quo (“As Is”). Understanding the current state and diagnosing the underlying issues in a city’s mobility system are crucial initial steps in shaping an effective urban transportation strategy. So, establishing the relative prevalence of different modes of transportation (that is, the modal share) is the cornerstone for any mobility program. Global benchmarks indicate on average a relatively even split of modes with about 39% motorized private transport, 32% public transport, and 29% micromobility and walking. (See Exhibit 3.)
However, these shares vary greatly depending on the city type and the city’s current development and transformation stage. For example, in the US, private transport often accounts for more than 70% of modal share (in Chicago, for example), whereas in many Asian cities (such as Tokyo and Singapore), public transport plays a far more critical role, with shares ranging from 47% to 53%.
Besides the modal share, key metrics such as levels of congestion, accidents, and emissions are required to set the right baseline. (See Exhibit 4.) For example, Amsterdam is a role model with respect to congestion efficiency (only 17 hours lost to congestion versus, for example, more than 100 in Rome) but could still improve on safety (approximately four deaths per 100,000 inhabitants
Vision and Ambition (“to Be”). To effectively address current challenges in a city’s mobility system, officials need to establish a clear vision and ambition that serve as a north star for decisions and actions. To ensure that the vision and ambition are both actionable and impactful, officials should meet essential criteria, including:
Financial and Practical Viability. The vision and ambition must consider financial constraints and resources. For instance, while developing a top-notch light- and heavy-rail transit (LRT/HRT) system might be ideal, alternatives like a bus rapid transit (BRT) system might be more feasible, being up to 40 times less expensive on a cost per kilometer
By integrating these elements, city officials can craft a vision and an ambition that not only inspire change but also draw a practical roadmap for achieving a safer, more efficient, and sustainable urban transport system that ultimately helps to create a “city of choice.”
Comparing the current mobility system (“as is”) with the envisioned future state (“to be”) has revealed discrepancies. Thus, a question arises: How can this gap be closed? Taking modal share as an example, this translates into a sum of initiatives suitable to enable a balanced shift between transport modes—whether that involves increasing public transport capacity or reducing private vehicle usage.
Mapping the Solution Space. BCG relies on a comprehensive list of more than a hundred potential initiatives grouped into three main categories. (See Exhibit 5.) However, not every initiative is equally impactful or suitable for every city. For example, emerging cities might need to focus on establishing basic infrastructure, like a functioning bus network, while more developed ones could explore advanced urban-planning concepts, such as “15-minute cities.” The primary task here is to refine this long list into a short list of the 15 to 20 most effective potential initiatives. This step is crucial to overall success; usually, a handful of initiatives deliver the bulk of the impact. (In a recent case, we found that 5 of 13 private transport initiatives led to more than 95% of the overall reduction in trips.)
Sequencing. In addition to evaluating the pure impact of each initiative, other factors must be considered for effective sequencing:
Following this comprehensive assessment, impactful initiatives can be categorized into two buckets:
By following these steps, cities can systematically prioritize and implement measures that effectively transform their transportation landscapes into more sustainable and efficient systems.
City transformation projects can be long, complex, and costly. To secure the necessary funding and justify resource allocations throughout the project, transport authorities must quickly deliver tangible, visible results on the ground—ideally within the first six to nine months. Moreover, unsolved mobility-related issues tend to be quickly exacerbated, making it pivotal to address pressing challenges right away.
Quick wins are essential for generating early momentum and public support. These can include initiatives like establishing bus priority lanes at key intersections, implementing smarter passenger funneling at metro stations, introducing paid-parking zones, creating pop-up bike lanes, refining schedules, and reorganizing traffic flows. (See Exhibit 7.) These measures improve the efficiency and appeal of public and active transport options and demonstrate the authority’s commitment to real change.
For instance, one city successfully redistributed more than 50 million trips from private to public transport and micromobility in less than a year—a 3% to 4% modal shift. This rapid progress represented about a quarter of the city’s total transformation goal. By achieving quick wins, transport authorities can build confidence among stakeholders and the public, setting a positive precedent for the more complex initiatives that will follow.
While quick wins provide immediate, visible results and help build momentum, the bulk of the transformation—typically 75% to 80% of the impact—is driven by mid- to long-term initiatives. These initiatives are central to realizing the city’s vision for its transportation system.
As the initial quick-win projects are being implemented, city officials must concurrently plan and design more complex, longer-term initiatives. These typically involve significant capex projects such as the construction of new infrastructure. Given the uncertainty of future developments (such as urbanization rates), it is vital to assess several long-term scenarios and profoundly understand their impact to ensure the most efficient capital allocation. Scenarios may include initiatives focused on developing mobility hubs, adding road capacity, or expanding metro and rail networks. Officials must also pursue analysis-intensive initiatives (such as data-driven optimization of the bus network) and projects requiring substantial legal or operational changes (for example, introducing new operating models for public transport, such as gross cost contracting for buses).
The selection and prioritization of these initiatives depend heavily on the city’s specific circumstances and the long-term goals its leaders set. While the context may vary, valuable insights can be gained by examining other cities that have successfully implemented similar transformations. For example:
By learning from these precedents, city officials can better understand which initiatives might be effective and how they can be sequenced and integrated into the broader transportation plan.
Traditionally, cities have relied on internal experts to conceptualize and prioritize long-term transportation initiatives. However, these experienced-based decision-making processes can fall short in comprehending the full complexity of mobility ecosystems on the ground and can be biased by individual judgments.
Enter digital twins, such as BCG’s City Flow.
Digital twins are enabled by recent advances in data-driven modeling, which now offers significantly better efficiency and effectiveness. For instance, using City Flow to reassess an infrastructure pipeline, we recently helped a client save more than $1 billion in investment while reducing travel times by over 35% in the affected areas.
Digital twins like City Flow augment urban planning, delivering insights in three ways:
For any city aiming to transform its transportation system, two more enablers—organization structure and effective communication—are crucial for success.
Organization Structure. A robust organization structure is essential to support the new era of data-driven decision making. This involves establishing a technology excellence department, as evidenced by successful examples in our previous work. Such a department is pivotal not only for managing the digital twin but also for tracking the success of initiatives and making adjustments based on the latest data, such as changing demand patterns. For instance, London revisits approximately 20% of its bus network annually to adapt to shifts in passenger behavior, illustrating the dynamic approach needed to keep transportation services responsive and efficient.
The organization’s (re-)structuring should also include the centralization of ownership and management of mobility assets. Diffusion of responsibility, budgets, and initiatives is among the primary reasons for delays and inefficiencies in mobility transformation programs. Combining the assets within one department or setting up a powerful decision council to align all stakeholders is a key enabler for success.
Communication. Putting citizens at the center of the change process is vital. Transparent communication of planned mobility initiatives is key to building public trust and acceptance. Taking a cue from Singapore, where the transport authority consistently explains its actions, helps everyone understand the purpose behind changes, reinforcing community support. This quote from a Singapore LTA official highlights the philosophy:
“We keep explaining to our citizens for years now why we are doing what we are doing. Everyone understands it. This is core.”
Additionally, offering channels for feedback gives citizens a sense of involvement and control. For example, London’s Transport for London (TfL) publishes proposed adjustments to bus routes and planned bike lanes online, inviting public input and suggestions. It also provides avenues for lodging complaints. Such direct engagement has proven effective; within the first year of the newly established Elizabeth line, TfL processed hundreds of customer complaints, leading to a new timetable and the recruitment of a service quality lead to enhance customer satisfaction.
These examples underscore the importance of learning from best practices in organization management and community engagement to ensure the successful implementation of transportation initiatives and avoid setbacks, such as the recent micromobility bans observed in Paris. By fostering a transparent, responsive, and citizen-centered approach, cities can navigate the complexities of transformation more smoothly and sustainably.
Urban mobility transformations are complex “dishes” but can be awarded “Michelin stars” if done right. And while it can become busy in the kitchen at times, a few rules should never be forgotten:
Ultimately, transforming urban mobility should be pursued not as an end in itself but as a means to build vibrant, sustainable cities—unlocking billions in value by moving millions of people. The path is challenging, but with the right vision and execution, cities can create transportation systems that are efficient, safe, and sustainable, paving the way for a brighter, more connected future for generations to come.
Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, BCG Henderson Institute; Global Vice Chair, Global Advantage Practice
Munich
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